R&D

Facilitation of Influence Diagram Assembly (FIDA)

Construction and maintenance of large influence diagrams in an operational environment is a complex task. Analysts and engineers need tools to collaboratively build and evaluate these influence diagrams in the context of real world problems. IET is building the Ballistic Missile Defense Inference Collaboration Environment (BMD-ICE) to support specification of libraries of frames, automatically generate situation specific influence diagrams and perform inference.

IET has been investigating extension to the ICE to better support analysts and engineers. For example, analysts and engineers need capabilities to help them construct, interpret, debug, and extend influence diagrams. To effectively validate a large influence diagram, an analyst or engineer needs to be able to focus on subnets and individual variables, to examine an enormous number of probabilistic relationships, to understand how situation-specific models evolve, and to understand the computational costs of modeling decisions.

In this effort, IET is designing tools to aid analysts and engineers in predicting, explaining, and controlling the behavior of models by supplying them with capabilities for contradiction checking, frame-based acyclicity checking, localizing major influences on a given variable, subnet extraction, specification of test suites, stepthrough of model construction and inference, and complexity estimation.